A hobby page kept by one person for personal monitoring. Not a company, product, or official data service. Phase 1 preview.
Snapshot as of 2026-10-31 (America/New_York); markets through 2026-10-30 close. Not investment advice.
Snapshot built 2026-11-01 10:27 CST. Markets as of 2026-10-30 close, credit 2026-10-29, macro through 2026-10-31. STALE if markets/credit data are more than 1 US trading day old (counting a weekday only after its 4pm ET close), or macro data was built more than 8 days ago. (This static page cannot check its own age — compare the dates above with today.)
Verdict: the world economy is still growing, but stress is building in markets, credit and debt, led by Brazil's sell-off, Korea's chip crash, the Gulf oil shock and AI-linked credit, while US macro data stays strong.
| Region | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 76.0 | Growth |
| Americas (ex-US) | 64.4 | Growth |
| Europe | 72.1 | Growth |
| Asia-Pacific | 59.3 (coverage 82%; Korea, Australia excluded) | Softening |
| Other (ME / Africa / EM) | 40.3 (PROXY, not comparable) | Contraction risk |
| Economy | Score | Status | GDP | PMI | CPI | Target | Unemp. | Policy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 76.0 | Growth | 3.4 (Q3 2026 advance, SAAR (BEA, 2026-10-29)) | 54.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 4.2 | Fed funds 3.75–4.00% (hold 10-28; hiked Sep) |
| Canada | 72.5 | Growth | 1.1 (IMF 2026 forecast (quarterly GDP not gathered)) | — | 3.1 | 2.0 | 6.5 | BoC 2.50% (hiked 25bp 10-28) |
| Mexico | 71.3 | Growth | 3.6 (Q3 2026 q/q 0.9% annualized (INEGI flash)) | — | 3.62 | 3.0 | — | Banxico 6.50% (hold) |
| Brazil | 50.5 | Softening | 2.2 (IMF 2026 forecast) | — | 4.58 | 3.0 | 5.2 | Selic 13.75% (hike priced for Nov) |
| Euro area | 70.0 | Growth | 1.6 (Q3 2026 flash q/q 0.4% annualized (Eurostat); y/y 1.3%) | 52.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 6.5 | ECB deposit 2.50% (hold 10-29) |
| United Kingdom | 78.5 | Growth | 2.0 (Q2 2026 q/q 0.5% annualized (ONS)) | 52.8 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 4.7 | Bank Rate 3.75% (hike expected 11-05) |
| China | 46.1 | Softening | 4.9 (Q3 2026 q/q 1.2% annualized; y/y 4.5% (NBS)) | 49.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 5.2 | PBoC (not tracked) |
| Japan | 75.2 | Growth | 1.4 (Q2 2026 SAAR, 2nd prelim (Cabinet Office)) | 53.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | BoJ 1.25% (hold 10-30) |
| India | 73.1 | Growth | 7.0 (IMF 2026 forecast) | 54.9 | 5.54 | 4.0 | — | RBI (not tracked) |
| South Korea | — (coverage 50%) | Insufficient data | 4.1 (Q3 2026 q/q 1.0% annualized (BoK advance); y/y 3.4%) | — | — | 2.0 | — | BoK (not tracked) |
| Australia | — (coverage 30%) | Insufficient data | — | — | 4.3 | 2.5 | — | RBA 4.60% (hiked 09-29) |
Government debt: IMF WEO Oct 2026 (DataMapper GGXWDG_NGDP), general government gross debt, % of GDP; 2026–27 are projections.
| Economy | 2024 | 2025 | 2026f | 2027f | Change 2025→27 | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 122.3 | 124.4 | 126.8 | 128.7 | +4.3pp | elevated |
| Canada | 110.0 | 113.6 | 115.6 | 113.4 | -0.2pp | watch |
| Mexico | 59.0 | 61.7 | 62.1 | 62.9 | +1.2pp | none |
| Brazil | 87.0 | 93.3 | 97.0 | 99.3 | +6.0pp | elevated |
| Euro area | 86.3 | 87.3 | 88.0 | 88.5 | +1.2pp | none |
| Germany | 61.4 | 62.7 | 64.6 | 66.9 | +4.2pp | none |
| France | 112.6 | 115.5 | 118.5 | 120.4 | +4.9pp | elevated |
| Italy | 134.7 | 137.1 | 137.9 | 137.6 | +0.5pp | watch |
| Spain | 101.4 | 100.5 | 97.6 | 95.2 | -5.3pp | none |
| United Kingdom | 99.4 | 102.1 | 102.0 | 102.5 | +0.4pp | watch |
| Japan | 213.6 | 204.8 | 199.4 | 196.4 | -8.4pp | watch |
| China | 90.5 | 98.6 | 104.4 | 109.1 | +10.5pp | elevated |
| India | 84.8 | 84.3 | 83.1 | 81.3 | -3.0pp | none |
| South Korea | 49.6 | 52.4 | 47.3 | 46.2 | -6.2pp | none |
| Australia | 50.9 | 51.9 | 52.6 | 53.2 | +1.3pp | none |
| Saudi Arabia | 25.9 | 31.8 | 35.4 | 37.3 | +5.5pp | none |
| South Africa | 76.0 | 78.4 | 78.0 | 78.1 | -0.3pp | none |
| Turkey | 23.6 | 23.7 | 22.5 | 22.6 | -1.1pp | none |
| World (IMF group) | 91.9 | 94.0 | 94.6 | 95.8 | +1.8pp | benchmark |
| Advanced economies (IMF group) | 107.4 | 108.2 | 107.8 | 108.5 | +0.3pp | benchmark |
| Emerging & developing (IMF group) | 69.9 | 73.7 | 76.2 | 78.5 | +4.8pp | benchmark |
| Middle East & Central Asia (IMF group) | 43.9 | 46.7 | 49.1 | 48.0 | +1.3pp | benchmark |
| Sub-Saharan Africa (IMF group) | 57.4 | 56.8 | 55.5 | 54.5 | -2.3pp | benchmark |
US Buffett indicator: 229.0% (2026-10 (month-end series, usmacro.com)). Alternatives: GuruFocus total mkt cap/GDP 232.9% (2026-10-29); World Bank 2025 224.0% (2025); All US-listed incl. foreign (totalmarketindex.com) 298.4% (2026-10-30). Classic zones (buffettindicator.org): fair 90–115%, overvalued 115–135%, strongly overvalued >135%.
Market cap / GDP: World Bank CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS (WFE-sourced; last updated 2026-10-08). Current = WB 2025 × (1 + local index YTD to Oct 30), an estimate.
| Market | World Bank latest (year) | 2015–24 avg | Current / est. | vs own avg (×) | Flag | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 224.0 (2025) | 169.4 | 229.0 | 1.35 | elevated | Buffett indicator, Oct 2026 (usmacro.com; GuruFocus 232.9% Oct 29) |
| Canada | 199.2 (2025) | 136.5 | 223.7 | 1.64 | elevated | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + ^GSPTSE YTD) |
| Mexico | 30.6 (2025) | 33.3 | 33.2 | 1.0 | none | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + ^MXX YTD) |
| Brazil | 38.2 (2025) | 45.9 | 39.8 | 0.87 | none | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + ^BVSP YTD) |
| Germany | 57.4 (2025) | 50.7 | 60.5 | 1.19 | none | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + ^GDAXI YTD) |
| France | 85.1 (2018) | — | — | — | none | Stale: latest World Bank value is 2018 |
| United Kingdom | 97.3 (2022) | — | — | — | none | Stale: latest World Bank value is 2022 |
| Japan | 171.6 (2025) | 121.6 | 215.8 | 1.77 | elevated | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + ^N225 YTD) |
| China | 79.5 (2025) | 65.6 | 72.1 | 1.1 | none | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + 000001.SS YTD) |
| Hong Kong | 1425.0 (2025) | 1238.6 | 1295.2 | 1.05 | none | Structurally high (foreign/dual listings); judged vs own average only |
| South Korea | 147.2 (2025) | 94.5 | 200.2 | 2.12 | elevated | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + ^KS11 YTD) |
| India | QUARANTINED (WB 266.9, 2025) | 105.7 | — | 2.53 | none | WB 2025 value looks anomalous (136% in 2024); excluded from flags |
| Australia | 113.9 (2025) | 105.1 | 116.4 | 1.11 | none | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + ^AXJO YTD) |
| Saudi Arabia | 184.7 (2025) | 177.9 | — | 1.04 | none | — |
| South Africa | 327.2 (2025) | 269.9 | — | 1.21 | none | Structurally high (foreign/dual listings); judged vs own average only |
| Turkey | 25.3 (2025) | 25.3 | — | 1.0 | none | — |
| World | 148.5 (2025) | 110.6 | 163.6 | 1.48 | watch | estimate: WB 2025 x (1 + URTH YTD) |
Rules. Debt: Advanced: elevated if 2026f >=100% and +3pp or more 2025->2027f; watch if >=100% or (>=90% and rising). EM: elevated if >=70% and +5pp or more; else same watch rule. Market cap: Current (or price-adjusted 2026 estimate) vs own 2015-2024 average: >=1.25x watch, >=1.5x elevated. US Buffett >=150% elevated. Valuation flags capped at elevated (not near-term stress signals).
| Economy | Household | 3y chg | Corporate | 3y chg | Credit gap | Flag | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 67.2 | -6.1 | 72.5 | -5.9 | -11.3 | none | |
| Canada | 100.0 | 0.3 | 118.8 | 1.6 | -15.3 | watch | |
| Mexico | 17.4 | 1.3 | 21.2 | -0.3 | -3.1 | none | |
| Brazil | 38.0 | 3.9 | 54.6 | 3.9 | 0.7 | none | |
| Euro area | 50.2 | -4.3 | 103.3 | -6.8 | -17.1 | none | |
| Germany | 47.9 | -4.2 | 86.9 | -4.4 | -4.2 | none | |
| France | 59.1 | -6.0 | 155.2 | -3.0 | -15.7 | none | |
| Italy | 35.9 | -3.1 | 58.3 | -5.8 | -13.6 | none | |
| Spain | 42.5 | -7.0 | 76.9 | -11.3 | -24.3 | none | |
| United Kingdom | 72.6 | -6.0 | 55.8 | -11.0 | -20.1 | none | |
| Switzerland | 127.0 | 5.8 | 130.3 | -11.1 | -11.8 | elevated | |
| Japan | 60.8 | -3.3 | 112.9 | -0.1 | 5.7 | watch | |
| China | 57.5 | -3.2 | 146.6 | 14.1 | -5.1 | elevated | |
| India | 49.1 | 6.7 | 56.0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | watch | |
| South Korea | 85.1 | -8.9 | 106.4 | -7.8 | -15.1 | none | |
| Australia | 114.1 | 5.1 | 61.7 | 2.4 | -9.7 | elevated | |
| Hong Kong | 88.9 | -7.5 | 249.6 | -29.8 | -46.9 | none | Financial centre: corporate credit includes mainland and regional firms; not flagged |
| Saudi Arabia | 31.6 | 5.3 | 46.5 | 13.6 | 6.7 | watch | |
| South Africa | 33.7 | -0.6 | 33.6 | -1.4 | -4.3 | none | |
| Turkey | 10.1 | -1.0 | 39.0 | -10.9 | -24.7 | none | |
| Advanced economies (BIS) | 66.0 | -6.0 | 87.8 | -7.7 | — | none | |
| Emerging economies (BIS) | 45.0 | -0.7 | 100.5 | 8.8 | — | none | |
| G20 (BIS) | 57.8 | -4.0 | 91.7 | -1.2 | — | none |
US (NY Fed, Q2 2026): $18.77T household debt, Q2 2026; 4.7% of balances in some stage of delinquency (Q2 2026); 6.97% annualized flow into 90+ day delinquency, credit cards (Q2 2026); 10.6% of student-loan balances 90+ days past due. Defaults: 4.3% (Sep 2026, trailing 12m; long-run average 4.2%; Moody's sees 3.8% by Dec); 5.3% (Aug 2026).
Rules: Elevated: >=100% of GDP and up 3pp or more over 3 years. Watch: >=85% and rising. (85% is the household threshold in Cecchetti, Mohanty & Zampolli, BIS 2011.) Elevated: >=100% of GDP and up 5pp or more over 3 years. Watch: >=100% and rising. Hong Kong not flagged (financial centre). BIS credit-to-GDP gap (total private credit vs its long-run trend): 2-10pp watch, above 10pp elevated (Basel III countercyclical-buffer bands).
| Group | Name | Last | Date | 1 month % | YTD % | From high % | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | KBW Bank Index (US large banks) | 172.02 | 2026-10-30 | 1.21 | 4.78 | -11.29 | watch |
| Banks | SPDR S&P Regional Banking (KRE) | 72.01 | 2026-10-30 | 3.7 | 11.11 | -7.6 | none |
| Banks | iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks (EXV1) | 37.26 | 2026-10-30 | -10.9 | 5.75 | -13.71 | watch |
| Banks | TOPIX Banks ETF (1615.T) | 718.5 | 2026-10-30 | -9.47 | 36.03 | -9.47 | none |
| Private credit | VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD) | 12.39 | 2026-10-30 | -3.88 | -12.62 | -17.67 | watch |
| Private credit | Blackstone (BX) | 118.51 | 2026-10-30 | 5.73 | -23.12 | -27.52 | single stock, not flagged |
| AI infrastructure | PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 10688.8 | 2026-10-30 | -15.36 | 50.91 | -26.96 | elevated |
| AI infrastructure | CoreWeave (CRWV) | 54.87 | 2026-10-30 | -37.02 | -23.38 | -60.23 | single stock, not flagged |
| AI infrastructure | Oracle (ORCL) | 130.67 | 2026-10-30 | -4.83 | -32.96 | -50.24 | single stock, not flagged |
| AI infrastructure | Nebius (NBIS) | 154.14 | 2026-10-30 | -34.65 | 84.15 | -46.23 | single stock, not flagged |
| AI infrastructure | Nvidia (NVDA) | 204.64 | 2026-10-30 | -10.39 | 9.73 | -14.46 | single stock, not flagged |
| Credit gauge | Value | As of | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave 5y CDS | above 1,100bp | 2026-10-30 | CICC note via Investing.com/StreetInsider; 1,041bp on Oct 27 (S&P Global data via TokenPost) | elevated |
| CoreWeave 9.75% 2031 bond yield | 15.78% (about 15% on Oct 30) | 2026-10-15 | CNBC | elevated |
| Oracle 5y CDS (rated BBB-) | 293bp (peak 337.75bp Oct 20; 141bp Jan 2) | 2026-10-29 | Investing.com; CNBC | watch |
| Meta / Nvidia 5y CDS | 108bp / 101bp, record highs | 2026-10 | FT | none |
| NAV BDC redemption requests | 11.5% of NAV in Q3 (12.7% in Q2); about 40% met, $8.2B unmet | 2026-Q3 | Stanger | watch |
| Moody's spec-grade default rate | Global 4.3% (Sep); US 5.3% (Aug) | 2026-09 | Moody's; First Trust | watch |
Rules: Sector equity index from 52-week high: 10% watch, 20% elevated, 30% severe (sector indices swing more than broad benchmarks). Single-name CDS >=1,000bp = distressed (elevated). An investment-grade name with CDS >=250bp (high-yield territory) = watch. BDC index drawdown >=10% or redemption requests above the usual 5% gate = watch. US spec-grade default rate >=5% watch, >=7% elevated.
| Region | Index | Level | 1d | 1w | 1m | YTD | From high | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | S&P 500 | 7,580.07 | -1.8% | -0.6% | -0.9% | +10.7% | -3.0% | 2026-10-30 |
| United States | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,770.31 | -1.1% | -0.8% | +1.7% | +7.7% | -4.7% | 2026-10-30 |
| United States | Nasdaq Composite | 25,437.00 | -2.9% | -2.0% | -5.3% | +9.4% | -7.8% | 2026-10-30 |
| Americas | S&P/TSX Composite (Canada) | 35,620.00 | -1.7% | -0.5% | +1.1% | +12.3% | -3.6% | 2026-10-30 |
| Americas | Bovespa (Brazil) | 167,922.00 | -0.8% | -18.1% | -9.9% | +4.2% | -19.7% | 2026-10-30 |
| Americas | S&P/BMV IPC (Mexico) | 69,779.20 | -0.0% | -0.1% | +8.7% | +8.5% | -2.5% | 2026-10-30 |
| Europe | FTSE 100 | 10,729.80 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +1.2% | +8.0% | -1.7% | 2026-10-30 |
| Europe | DAX | 25,818.21 | -0.8% | +2.5% | +2.5% | +5.4% | -2.8% | 2026-10-30 |
| Europe | CAC 40 | 7,969.42 | -0.0% | +2.4% | +0.1% | -2.2% | -8.7% | 2026-10-30 |
| Europe | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,131.31 | -1.2% | +1.0% | -2.2% | +5.8% | -6.4% | 2026-10-30 |
| Asia-Pacific | Nikkei 225 | 63,290.11 | -2.1% | +0.9% | -5.2% | +25.7% | -12.5% | 2026-10-30 |
| Asia-Pacific | Hang Seng | 23,294.42 | +1.5% | +0.9% | -5.4% | -9.1% | -16.7% | 2026-10-30 |
| Asia-Pacific | Shanghai Composite | 3,599.02 | -1.4% | -2.5% | -6.3% | -9.3% | -15.2% | 2026-10-30 |
| Asia-Pacific | Kospi | 5,730.74 | -3.5% | +3.2% | -16.2% | +36.0% | -37.1% | 2026-10-30 |
| Asia-Pacific | Taiex (Taiwan) | 45,211.83 | -2.5% | -1.8% | -5.7% | +56.1% | -9.2% | 2026-10-30 |
| Asia-Pacific | Nifty 50 (India) | 23,053.10 | +0.5% | +2.0% | +1.9% | -11.8% | -12.4% | 2026-10-30 |
| Asia-Pacific | S&P/ASX 200 | 8,908.10 | +0.0% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +2.2% | -3.9% | 2026-10-30 |
| Other / EM | MSCI EM (EEM ETF) | 61.04 | -2.7% | -1.6% | -8.6% | +11.6% | -14.3% | 2026-10-30 |
| Global | MSCI World (URTH ETF) | 204.64 | -1.6% | -0.2% | -0.8% | +10.2% | -3.2% | 2026-10-30 |
| Series | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| ust2y | 4.61 | 2026-10-29 |
| ust10y | 4.98 | 2026-10-29 |
| ust30y | 5.32 | 2026-10-29 |
| t10y2y | 0.38 | 2026-10-30 |
| t10y3m | 0.78 | 2026-10-30 |
| igOAS | 0.89 | 2026-10-29 |
| bbbOAS | 1.1 | 2026-10-29 |
| hyOAS | 3.26 | 2026-10-29 |
| emCorpOAS | 1.73 | 2026-10-29 |
| emHyCorpOAS | 3.74 | 2026-10-29 |
| aaaYield | 5.98 | 2026-10-29 |
| baaYield | 6.47 | 2026-10-29 |
| sofr | 3.94 | 2026-10-29 |
| tbill3m | 4.0 | 2026-10-29 |
| effr | 3.88 | 2026-10-29 |
| iorb | 3.9 | 2026-10-29 |
| estr | 2.439 | 2026-10-29 |
| euribor3m | 2.676 | 2026-10-30 |
| embiGD | 197 | 2026-10-21 |
| oatBund | 159 | 2026-10-30 |
| de10y | 3.46952380952381 | 2026-09-01 |
| jp10y | 3.05 | 2026-09-01 |
| uk10y | 5.2421 | 2026-09-01 |
| fr10y | 4.4771 | 2026-09-01 |
| vix | 19.42 | 2026-10-30 |
| move | 100.2 | 2026-10-30 |
| nfci | -0.487 | 2026-10-23 |
| stlfsi | -0.5837 | 2026-10-23 |
| Severity | Change | Region | Flag | Value | Threshold | As of | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| severe | unchanged | Americas | Bovespa crash after Brazil's election | -18.1% in 1 week; -19.7% from 52-week high (2026-10-09) | >=10% fall in 1 week = severe; >=20% from high = bear market | 2026-10-30 | A double-digit weekly drop signals a sudden regime change in how investors price the country, often with capital flight. |
| severe | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Kospi in bear market | -37.1% from 52-week high (2026-06-22) | ≥7.5% watch · ≥10% elevated · ≥20% severe | 2026-10-30 | A fall of this size from the peak usually reflects a real repricing of earnings or risk, and tightens financial conditions for local firms and households. |
| severe | unchanged | Other / EM | Gulf economies contracting | IMF 2026: GCC −4.8%, Saudi −3.3%, ME&CA −0.3% | Forecast GDP <0 = severe | 2026-10-13 / 10-22 | The Hormuz disruption has cut Gulf oil exports; the IMF now sees GCC output shrinking this year. |
| elevated | unchanged | Americas | Brazil currency and rates shock | USD/BRL +6.6% in 1 week (5.38) | ≥5% depreciation in 1 week = elevated | 2026-10-30 | The real’s sharpest move since 1999 and a 300bp jump in rate futures raise borrowing costs and imported inflation; a Selic hike is now priced. |
| elevated | unchanged | Americas | Brazil debt approaching 100% | IMF: 93.3% (2025) to 99.3% (2027f) | EM >=70% and +5pp by 2027f = elevated | IMF WEO Oct 2026 | Debt rising at 13.75% policy rates is exactly the fiscal worry behind the post-election sell-off. |
| elevated | unchanged | Americas | Canada market cap stretched vs history | Est. 224% of GDP vs 2015-24 average 137% (1.6x) | >=1.5x own 10-year average = elevated | WB 2025, price-adjusted to Oct 30 | Canadian stocks are valued well above their usual share of GDP while unemployment rises and the BoC hikes. |
| elevated | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Nikkei 225 in correction | -12.5% from 52-week high (2026-06-25) | ≥7.5% watch · ≥10% elevated · ≥20% severe | 2026-10-30 | A fall of this size from the peak usually reflects a real repricing of earnings or risk, and tightens financial conditions for local firms and households. |
| elevated | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Hang Seng in correction | -16.7% from 52-week high (2026-01-29) | ≥7.5% watch · ≥10% elevated · ≥20% severe | 2026-10-30 | A fall of this size from the peak usually reflects a real repricing of earnings or risk, and tightens financial conditions for local firms and households. |
| elevated | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Shanghai Composite in correction | -15.2% from 52-week high (2026-05-13) | ≥7.5% watch · ≥10% elevated · ≥20% severe | 2026-10-30 | A fall of this size from the peak usually reflects a real repricing of earnings or risk, and tightens financial conditions for local firms and households. |
| elevated | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Nifty 50 (India) in correction | -12.4% from 52-week high (2026-01-02) | ≥7.5% watch · ≥10% elevated · ≥20% severe | 2026-10-30 | A fall of this size from the peak usually reflects a real repricing of earnings or risk, and tightens financial conditions for local firms and households. |
| elevated | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | China leading indicator below trend and falling | OECD CLI 97.41, -0.74 over 3 months | CLI <100 and falling = elevated; >100 but down ≥0.25 in 3m = watch | 2026-09 (OECD, released 2026-10) | The OECD leading indicator turning down below 100 has historically preceded slowdowns by roughly six to nine months. |
| elevated | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | China government debt crossing 100% | IMF: 98.6% (2025) to 109.1% (2027f) | EM >=70% and +5pp by 2027f = elevated | IMF WEO Oct 2026 | Fast debt growth (IMF augmented definitions run higher still) limits room for stimulus as the factory survey falls below 50. |
| elevated | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Korea market cap stretched vs history | Est. 200% of GDP vs 2015-24 average 95% (2.1x) | >=1.5x own 10-year average = elevated | WB 2025, price-adjusted to Oct 30 | Even after the 37% fall, Korean stocks are valued about twice their usual share of GDP, so the AI-chip correction may have further to run. |
| elevated | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Japan market cap stretched vs history | Est. 216% of GDP vs 2015-24 average 122% (1.8x) | >=1.5x own 10-year average = elevated | WB 2025, price-adjusted to Oct 30 | Japanese equities are valued far above their usual share of GDP, leaving them exposed as the BoJ keeps hiking. |
| elevated | new | Asia-Pacific | China corporate debt high and rising fast | BIS: 146.6% of GDP (Q1 2026), +14.1pp over 3 years | >=100% and +5pp over 3 years = elevated | BIS, 2026-Q1 | Company debt near 150% of GDP and up 14pp in three years means more of China's growth relies on borrowing, which limits stimulus and raises default risk if the slowdown deepens. |
| elevated | new | Asia-Pacific | Australia household debt high and rising | BIS: 114.1% of GDP (Q1 2026), +5.1pp over 3 years | >=100% and +3pp over 3 years = elevated | BIS, 2026-Q1 | Household debt above annual GDP and rising again leaves families exposed as the RBA hikes (4.60%) into 4.3% inflation. |
| elevated | unchanged | Europe | France business activity contracting | Flash composite PMI 48.4; Q3 GDP −0.1% q/q | PMI <50 with negative GDP = elevated | 2026-10-30 | France is the euro area’s second-largest economy; contraction plus strikes and fiscal stress raise the risk of spillover to EU growth and bond markets. |
| elevated | unchanged | Europe | French sovereign spread elevated | OAT–Bund 10y ~159bp (peak ~175bp on 10-22) | ≥100bp watch · ≥150bp elevated | 2026-10-30 | A wide gap over German Bunds means investors charge France a fiscal-risk premium, which can spread to Italy and euro-area banks. |
| elevated | unchanged | Europe | France debt rising toward 120% | IMF: 115.5% (2025) to 120.4% (2027f) | >=100% and +3pp by 2027f = elevated | IMF WEO Oct 2026 | Rising debt with a shrinking economy is what the bond market is pricing in the wide OAT-Bund spread. |
| elevated | new | Europe | Switzerland household debt highest among majors | BIS: 127.0% of GDP (Q1 2026), +5.8pp over 3 years | >=100% and +3pp over 3 years = elevated | BIS, 2026-Q1 | Mortgage debt at 127% of GDP and rising makes Swiss households and banks sensitive to any house-price fall. |
| elevated | unchanged | Other / EM | Emerging-market equities in correction | EEM -14.3% from high (2026-06-22) | ≥10% elevated | 2026-10-30 | Broad EM selling usually means global investors are pulling risk capital back toward the US dollar. |
| elevated | unchanged | United States | US consumer sentiment near record lows | UMich 48.0 (Oct final); 1-yr inflation expectations 4.7% | <60 watch · <50 elevated | 2026-10 final | Households say they are worse off despite strong GDP; if spending follows sentiment, the expansion loses its main engine. |
| elevated | unchanged | United States | US federal debt high and rising | IMF: 124.4% (2025) to 128.7% (2027f) | >=100% and +3pp by 2027f = elevated | IMF WEO Oct 2026 | Debt above 120% of GDP and still climbing means more Treasury supply and higher interest costs, one reason long yields sit near 5%. |
| elevated | unchanged | United States | US stock market far above GDP (Buffett indicator) | 229% (Oct 2026); 2015-24 average 169% | US >=150% = elevated (valuation flags capped at elevated) | 2026-10 | Stocks worth more than twice annual GDP have historically meant low long-run returns and bigger falls when sentiment turns; not a timing signal. |
| elevated | new | United States | Chip stocks in a bear market | SOX -27.0% from Jun 22 high; -7.2% on Oct 30 | Sector index from high: 10% watch, 20% elevated, 30% severe | 2026-10-30 | Semiconductors are the core of the AI build-out; a fall this deep says investors doubt the spending will pay off, and it spills into Korea, Taiwan and Japan. |
| elevated | changed | United States (sector) | AI-infrastructure credit stress | CoreWeave 5y CDS above 1,100bp, bonds about 15%; shares -60% from May high | Single-name CDS >=1,000bp = distressed (elevated); two or more AI-infra names distressed = severe | 2026-10-30 | Distressed pricing on AI cloud borrowers and a tech sell-off (Intel −29% on 10-30) test whether AI capex can keep being financed with debt. |
| elevated | unchanged | World | Oil price shock | Brent $117.64, +80% y/y, +93% YTD | ≥50% y/y elevated · ≥100% y/y severe | 2026-10-30 | Oil up this much in a year has preceded most post-war US recessions; it squeezes real incomes and forces central banks to stay tight. |
| elevated | unchanged | World | Inflation well above target across major economies | US CPI 3.7%, euro area 3.8%, UK 3.5%, Australia 4.3%, India 5.5%, Brazil 4.6% | ≥1.5pp above target watch · ≥2pp elevated | Sep 2026 releases | Energy-driven inflation is pushing central banks to hike into slowing growth (Fed in Sep, RBA in Sep, BoC on 10-28; BoE expected 11-05). |
| watch | unchanged | Americas | Mexico leading indicator rolling over | OECD CLI 102.30, -0.40 over 3 months | CLI >100 but down ≥0.25 in 3m = watch | 2026-09 (OECD, released 2026-10) | The leading indicator is still above trend but momentum is fading, an early sign growth may cool in coming quarters. |
| watch | unchanged | Americas | Brazil leading indicator rolling over | OECD CLI 102.36, -0.49 over 3 months | CLI >100 but down ≥0.25 in 3m = watch | 2026-09 (OECD, released 2026-10) | The leading indicator is still above trend but momentum is fading, an early sign growth may cool in coming quarters. |
| watch | unchanged | Americas | Mexican peso weakening | USD/MXN +4.29% in 1 month (18.85) | ≥3% in 1 month watch · ≥7.5% elevated | 2026-10-30 | A steady slide in the peso adds to imported inflation and limits Banxico’s room to cut. |
| watch | unchanged | Americas | Canada debt above 100% | IMF: 115.6% (2026f), 113.4% (2027f) | >=100% = watch | IMF WEO Oct 2026 | Debt is high but projected to stabilise; it limits room to cushion the job losses now appearing. |
| watch | new | Americas | Canada private debt high | BIS: households 100.0%, companies 118.8% of GDP (Q1 2026), both edging up | Household >=85% and rising, or corporate >=100% and rising = watch | BIS, 2026-Q1 | Households owe about a year of GDP and companies more, so BoC hikes and rising unemployment hit borrowers quickly. |
| watch | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Taiex (Taiwan) nearing correction | -9.2% from 52-week high (2026-10-06) | ≥7.5% watch · ≥10% elevated · ≥20% severe | 2026-10-30 | A fall of this size from the peak usually reflects a real repricing of earnings or risk, and tightens financial conditions for local firms and households. |
| watch | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | China factory PMI back below 50 | NBS manufacturing PMI 49.3 (Sep 50.1) | <50 watch · <48 elevated · <45 severe | 2026-10-31 | A sub-50 reading means more factories report shrinking activity than growing; small and mid-size firms are weakest (48.4 and 47.5). |
| watch | unchanged | Asia-Pacific | Japan debt very high, though falling | IMF: 204.8% (2025) to 196.4% (2027f) | >=100% = watch | IMF WEO Oct 2026 | At about twice GDP, rising JGB yields (10y about 3%) raise the cost of carrying the debt even as the ratio falls. |
| watch | new | Asia-Pacific | Japan credit running above trend | BIS credit-to-GDP gap +5.7pp; corporate debt 112.9% of GDP | Credit gap 2-10pp = watch | BIS, 2026-Q1 | Private credit is growing faster than its long-run trend while the BoJ raises rates, a classic early-warning pattern. |
| watch | new | Asia-Pacific | India credit running above trend | BIS credit-to-GDP gap +4.3pp; household debt 49.1% (record), +6.7pp over 3 years | Credit gap 2-10pp = watch | BIS, 2026-Q1 | Household borrowing is at a record share of GDP and rising fast, so a slowdown would hit consumers harder than before. |
| watch | unchanged | Europe | CAC 40 nearing correction | -8.7% from 52-week high (2026-08-10) | ≥7.5% watch · ≥10% elevated · ≥20% severe | 2026-10-30 | A fall of this size from the peak usually reflects a real repricing of earnings or risk, and tightens financial conditions for local firms and households. |
| watch | unchanged | Europe | Italy and UK debt above 100% | Italy 137.9%, UK 102.0% (2026f) | >=100% = watch | IMF WEO Oct 2026 | High but roughly stable debt leaves little fiscal room if growth or rates move the wrong way. |
| watch | new | Europe | European bank shares sliding | STOXX Europe 600 Banks (EXV1) -13.7% from Sep 7 high, -10.9% in a month | Sector index from high: 10% watch, 20% elevated | 2026-10-30 | Rising bond yields, the French debt spread and oil push down bank shares; banks hold government bonds, so sovereign stress can feed into lending. |
| watch | new | Middle East | Saudi corporate credit boom | BIS credit-to-GDP gap +6.7pp; corporate debt 46.5% of GDP (record), +13.6pp over 3 years | Credit gap 2-10pp = watch | BIS, 2026-Q1 | Company borrowing jumped 14pp of GDP in three years to fund Vision 2030 projects just as oil exports were cut. |
| watch | unchanged | Other / EM | EM high-yield corporate spreads widening | EM HY corp OAS 374bp, +98bp vs 6-month low | +50bp watch · +100bp elevated | 2026-10-29 | Riskier EM borrowers are paying sharply more to borrow, a sign of capital pulling back from emerging markets. |
| watch | unchanged | Other / EM | Turkish lira depreciation | USD/TRY +16.3% YTD (49.94) | ≥15% YTD = watch | 2026-10-30 | Persistent lira weakness keeps inflation high and is a standing EM stress point. |
| watch | unchanged | United States | Nasdaq Composite nearing correction | -7.8% from 52-week high (2026-10-06) | ≥7.5% watch · ≥10% elevated · ≥20% severe | 2026-10-30 | A fall of this size from the peak usually reflects a real repricing of earnings or risk, and tightens financial conditions for local firms and households. |
| watch | unchanged | United States | US high-yield spreads widening | HY OAS 326bp, +66bp vs 6-month low | +50bp vs 6m low watch · +100bp elevated · level ≥500bp severe | 2026-10-29 | Junk-bond investors demanding more yield is an early sign lenders see more default risk; the level is still low by history. |
| watch | unchanged | United States | US long-term yields near 5% | 10y 4.98%, 30y 5.32%; MOVE 100 | 30y ≥5% or MOVE ≥100 = watch | 2026-10-29 | High long rates raise mortgage and corporate borrowing costs and pressure equity valuations, especially for long-duration tech. |
| watch | unchanged | United States | US repo rate above interest on reserves | SOFR 3.94% vs IORB 3.90%; ON RRP $4.4B | SOFR > IORB watch · SOFR − 3m bill >25bp elevated | 2026-10-29 | SOFR printing above IORB with the reverse-repo buffer near zero suggests reserves are only just ample; spikes can follow at month- or quarter-end. |
| watch | new | United States | US bank shares off their highs | KBW Bank Index -11.3% from Aug 14 high; regional banks (KRE) -7.6% | Sector index from high: 10% watch, 20% elevated | 2026-10-30 | Large-bank shares have given back gains on rising funding costs and credit worries; regional banks are weaker on charge-offs but not yet past the line. |
| watch | new | United States | Private credit under pressure | BDC ETF (BIZD) -17.7% from high; NAV BDC redemption requests 11.5% of NAV in Q3 vs typical 5% gates, $8.2B unmet | BDC drawdown >=10% or redemptions above gates = watch | Q3 2026 / Oct 30 | Investors are asking for their money back faster than funds allow, and listed lenders trade well below their highs; private credit funds much of the AI and software build-out. |
| watch | new | United States | Oracle priced like junk | 5y CDS 293bp (Oct 29; peak 338bp Oct 20; 141bp Jan 2); rated BBB-; shares -50% from high | Investment-grade name with CDS >=250bp = watch | 2026-10-29 | Investors charge high-yield prices to insure Oracle's AI-data-centre debt even though it is still rated investment grade; a downgrade would ripple through AI financing. |
| watch | new | United States | US junk-bond default rate above 5% | Moody's US spec-grade 5.3% (Aug); global 4.3% (Sep) vs 4.2% long-run average | US >=5% watch; >=7% elevated | Aug-Sep 2026 | Defaults among riskier companies are above their long-run norm, mostly through distressed exchanges; they can rise again if rates stay high. |
| watch | unchanged | World | World market cap above its usual share of GDP | Est. 164% of world GDP vs 2015-24 average 111% (1.48x) | >=1.25x own 10-year average = watch | WB 2025, price-adjusted to Oct 30 | Global equities are priced richly relative to output, so earnings disappointments travel fast across markets. |
| Check (not flashing) | Reading | Stress threshold |
|---|---|---|
| US yield curve not inverted | 2s10s +38bp; 10y–3m +78bp | <0 = inverted |
| Sahm rule not triggered | 0.00 | ≥0.50 = recession signal |
| US financial conditions loose | Chicago Fed NFCI -0.487; St. Louis FSI -0.5837 | >0 = tighter than average |
| US funding spread calm | SOFR − 3m T-bill -6bp | >25bp = stress (TED-style) |
| Euro interbank spread normal | 3m Euribor − €STR 24bp | >50bp = stress |
| Equity volatility below stress | VIX 19.42 | >30 = stress |
| US IG spreads tight | IG OAS 89bp | >150bp = stress |
Score = Σ wᵢ·sᵢ / Σ wᵢ over available inputs; weights GDP 20, PMI 15, CLI 15, curve 10, market stress 15, inflation gap 15, labor 10. Methodology and source notes kept privately by the author.
Disclosure: Built and maintained with AI assistance (Grok Bot). Figures, scores and flags can be wrong, lagged, incomplete or mislabeled; check primary sources before acting. Not investment, legal or financial advice; for personal monitoring only.